POKEMARKET

BETA

THE POKÉMON CARD TERMINAL

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METHODOLOGY

HOW POKEMARKET PRICES CARDS

THE POKEMARKET PRICE INDEX

Base 100 = January 1, 2021. A level of 145.6 means the graded market is up 45.6% since.

The index moves only on chained same-card price returns — tracking more cards never moves it; only prices do. Adding coverage changes what the index can see, never what it says.

No synthetic series, ever — a scope renders the moment its index derives.

01

Transaction-anchored

Every estimate derives from real sales — never asking prices. Model outputs never feed back in as inputs.

Every estimate derives from real sales — eBay clears, auction-house hammers, verified captures. Model outputs never feed back into index estimation, so the index can't launder its own opinion into a price.

0
model outputs used as inputs
02

Outlier-filtered

Every sale is screened against the card's own history before it's allowed to move anything.

A single bad print — the wrong variant, a mislabeled grade, a fat-fingered auction — can poison a card's price for months. Sales are screened against the card's own history before they're allowed to move anything.

10
rejection filters at ingest
03

Confidence-tiered

Every estimate carries its tier — LIVE, MODELED, or LOW CONFIDENCE. Staleness is never hidden.

A price from six sales this week is not the same as a price from one sale last year. Every estimate carries its tier — LIVE, MODELED, or LOW CONFIDENCE — and staleness is never hidden behind a confident-looking number.

3
confidence tiers, always shown
04

Clamped, not imagined

Dormant cards roll forward with their cohort, inside hard bounds — no flat-lines, no fantasy moves.

Dormant cards roll forward with their cohort — inside hard bounds. No flat-lining at a 2019 price, and no fantasizing a 40× move out of thin air. When the leash tightens, the estimate says so.

max roll-forward, ever
05

Human-verified where it matters

Auction-house results and editorial capture cover the cards machines can't see — reviewed sale by sale.

Six-figure vintage doesn't clear on eBay. Auction-house results and editorial capture cover the cards machines can't see — reviewed sale by sale before they enter the record.

2.5K+
captured external sales
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